Who to Believe about Global Warming

I think it’s really quite simple: the earth is warming (link), humans are partially responsible, over-population and over-consumption are exhausting natural resources in the sea and on land, and the real issue is this: will human populations shrink naturally or through catastrophe?

I’ve written elsewhere (here) why so many people choose to deny these things. It’s like the late Renaissance when Copernicus and Galileo argued that the world was round and the vast majority of people continued to believe it was flat and resented elitists saying otherwise.  As others have pointed out, denialism is driven by political ideology or religious belief in the teeth of evidence to the contrary.

So how bad can it be?  On the optimistic end, controversial physicist Jonathan Katz says: “Global warming is real and much of it is probably anthropogenic. Nothing serious will be done about it, no matter how frantic or hysterical certain people become. Fortunately, global warming is probably good for humanity. Sit back, relax, and watch it happen” (here). I think he is implying that human over-population will be self-correcting. That’s a view shared by many economists and even some environmentalists (here).

However, while global fertility rates are now declining, are they declining fast enough that natural resources – especially food and water supplies - won’t be depleted? Journalist Jeremy Harding lays out the pessimistic view: “Sooner or later rises in temperature, water shortages, crop failure, diversion of grain yields to livestock and biofuels, disease in the animals we’re eating, soaring energy costs and armed conflict will disrupt the delivery systems, built on long distances and short order times, that service our needs” (link). Furthermore, can we avoid turning the debate into racist finger-pointing? The way to avoid that is for Americans to focus less on over-population and more on over-consumption and here in Encino that means addressing our over-consumption of water and electricity and looking at ways to reshape our farming methods and food delivery systems. While we can and should demand a lot from policy makers, in the end the most dramatic change starts at home with each of us.

Photo: Mr. Creosote in Monty Python’s The Meaning of Life