What will Ventura Blvd in Encino look like in Ten Years?

A friend was investigating one of the many FOR LEASE properties along Ventura Blvd the other day for warehousing some inventory. The landlord wasn’t even interested. He was holding out for bigger fish – a bank!

Retail is a bit like the movie business. At one extreme are the small boutique companies which, like art-house movies, are going out of business. At the other extreme, the corporate stores clustered in places like Fallbrook/Victory and throughout Woodland Hills are like all those corporate blockbuster movies. They represent a viable business model and they are the ones the landlords (cf movie studios) want to hear from. But all those mid-range stores that are like mid-range movies, they are rarely profitable these days. They aspire but they fall short.

What does it all mean with Barnes & Noble closing to be replaced by a CVS, the 99c Store by BevMo, Pier 1 by Fresh & Easy, Thomasville and Aaron Brothers by Michaels, Ken Crane’s going out of business? Some of those stores have simply become old-fashioned. They didn’t change when they needed to. Then there are those flashes in the pan where owner/investors hope to be that occasional low-budget runaway success, like Primitive, for example. Perhaps someone will open an EV or electric moped and bicycle store?

With its deeper pockets corporate America is increasingly taking over shopping choices in the San Fernando Valley and being on Ventura Blvd may not be their first choice of location. Rents have always been high and parking scarce. With the increase in grocery options, how long can Ralphs hold out at Hayvenhurst? Bed Bath & Beyond may be able to hang on, but after Michaels left the Lindley area, it looks like a bomb hit.

My guess is that Ventura Blvd retail districts will shrink and many properties will become offices and residential. This is actually a good thing because it will shape the debate about cars whizzing down the boulevard at the expense of pedestrians and cyclists. Mixed use buildings like the new Legado Encino and the stretch between Hayvenhurst and Woodley show us what things will look like in ten years.

Restaurants, cafes and yogurt shops, banks, phone company stores and some of the million hair salons and spas and pharmacies will survive, but I can’t say I’m optimistic about the others. Upscale specialty stores and home furnishings and mini-malls will struggle. The market is brutal and landlords indifferent. That’s life.

It will be a vastly different Ventura Blvd and one I look forward to.